This is Who the Vikings' Starting QB Will Be, and Why, in 2025
One of the marquee NFL offseason questions isn't even a question at this point.
It has the all the ingredients of a juicy offseason storyline except perhaps the most important one - a dilemma. Many are asking the question: Who will be the Vikings’ starting quarterback next season?
And they’re asking it as if the team has a true dilemma on its hands.
It does not.
J.J. McCarthy will be the starting quarterback when next season begins.
The effort to turn the Vikings’ decision on Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy this offseason into a dilemma is understandable.
The team won 14 games last season and it did so after McCarthy, Minnesota’s unquestioned quarterback of the future, sustained a season-ending knee injury in August only to have the presumed backup, Darnold, then have the season of his life to lead the organization on one of its most thrilling rides in team history.
Now, Darnold is a pending free agent, with a robust market for sure, while McCarthy is expected to make a complete recovery well before the next season begins.
The question the dilemma producers are proposing is: Should the Vikings offer Darnold in excess of $30 million per year to return to the team or should they let Darnold walk away to join another team in favor of anointing McCarthy as starter?
One can spin up as much ambiguity and drama as they’d like to turn the question into a complex conundrum. But the answer is simple.
McCarthy.
The reason the answer is simple is not because the franchise is dismissive of how Darnold stepped up to save the day. The answer to the Vikings’ quarterback question boils down to the same simple-yet-profound phrase authored by legendary American political strategist James Carville in 1992 - “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Two could have an educated, well-reasoned debate about which player - Darnold or McCarthy - can operate the Vikings’ offense better in 2025. But there is no debate about which of the two will be on a more economically-feasible salary.
McCarthy’s rookie contract will pay him a base salary in 2025 of $960,000 and will account for just 1.81% of the team’s salary cap. With such a low base salary and salary cap hit assigned to the most important position on the roster, the Vikings will have the cash and cap space to pursue top free agents at multiple positions and be in the conversation with talented players available via trade, such as Los Angeles Rams’ wide receiver Cooper Kupp.
Darnold, meanwhile, will parlay last season’s output, where he ranked fifth in yards, fifth in touchdown passes and sixth in passer rating, into a new contract that will command 40-50 times as much as McCarthy’s and as much as 15% of a team’s salary cap. Operating with that contract on the books, the Vikings would be relegated to non-participants for most of the top 50 or so free agents.
Plus, with Darnold on the roster, McCarthy would lose yet another season of on-field development because most of the practice reps and all of the game reps with the team’s offensive starters would go to the veteran Darnold.
So for as difficult as it is to let go of what Darnold accomplished in 2024 and what he could accomplish again in Purple during the 2025 season, that is exactly what the Vikings intend to do.
Any speculation to the contrary is simply ill-informed or click bait.